(LOS ANGELES) — California importers could be hit hardest by the new import tariffs — potentially paying over $170 billion more for imports than they did last year, according to newly released data by trade economists.
Texas importers rank second, with an estimated $82 billion increase. Altogether, the United States could pay over $712 billion more in import tariffs this year compared to 2024.
At 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday, President Donald Trump is set to impose individualized reciprocal higher tariffs on the countries with which the United States has the largest trade deficits.
All other countries will continue to be subject to the original 10% tariff baseline.
During remarks Tuesday, Trump claimed his newly announced tariffs would bring in billions per day. “We’re taking in almost $2 billion a day in tariffs,” said Trump. “These are tailored — highly tailored deals.”
While the lasting economic impact of Trump’s sweeping tariffs stands to be seen, Trade Partnership Worldwide, a group of economists and trade policy consultants, has released data on how much importers could pay in each state for 2025.
These payment increase predictions are based on 2024 import data for each state, according to Trade Partnership Worldwide.
The predictions reflect how much more importers would pay in tariffs by state this year if demand remained identical to 2024 — indicating which states could end up paying the most under the new tariff policy.
“As a disclaimer, we do not foresee demand for imports remaining the same as 2024 due to the tariffs,” said Daniel Anthony, president of Trade Partnership Worldwide. “But this gives us a good indicator of the size, scope and impact these tariffs could have on each state.”
Michigan importers could see over $27 billion in tariff payments for 2025, according to the data. About 20% of all U.S. auto production occurred in Michigan in 2023, according to the Detroit Regional Chamber.
The group’s predictive analysis applies all of the new tariffs Trump announced last week to the number of goods Americans imported last year.
Those tariffs include the president’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act actions on Canada, Mexico, China and Hong Kong and additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, derivative products and auto parts.
For the moment, their prediction does not include the additional tariff on Chinese imports the president may implement on Wednesday.
This prediction excluded products covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, in accordance with the new tariffs.
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